Railcar &PetroChemical Update:US Chemical Shipments down 2.1%.Ethane up 1c/gal to 29c/


Railcar loadings 4-week moving average -2.1%. Weekly loadings down 5.6%.


    The 4-week moving avg of chemical railcar loadings decreased 2.1% in Week#4 (ended 1/20/2018) vs. a 0.9% increase the prior week. Loadings YTD aredown 2.1%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 20% of total US chemicalshipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering a trendof broader chemical industry activity and demand. The more volatile measureof weekly loadings decreased 5.6% YoY (versus a 6.7% increase in the priorweek) and decreased 6.0% sequentially (vs.a 12.9% increase in the prior week).


    Ethane prices up 1 c/gal to 29 c/gal. Propane down 12 c/gal to 82 c/gal.

据安迅思数据显示,中国进口市场的强劲帮助支撑了东南亚市场PP现货价格, 2月2日东南亚市场所有来源的扁丝级PP现货平均价格达到1270美元/吨,创下自2015年中期以来的最高水平。

    Ethane prices rose 0.8 c/gal last week to 28.5 c/gal (vs its fuel value of 20.6 c/gal) asethane export and cracker demand continues to ramp up. While US ethanesupply/demand fundamentals remain loose, ethane rejection, which peaked at 600k bpdin 1H16, declined following the 2H16 start-up of a 200k bpd ethane export facility inHouston. However, with delays in new ethylene capacity coupled with growing amountsof associated gas rich oil and steady production of liquid rich shale gas, ethane rejectionis estimated at ~500k bpd in early 2018. As we move thru the year and into 2019, weexpect this long ethane position to erode as 4 world-scale ethylene crackers ramp-up inthe US in 2018-19 (combined ethane demand of 355k bpd). As the market tightens, weexpect ethane to trade toward its historical premium of ~10c/gal vs its fuel value, withthe premium reflecting fractionation, transportation and storage costs. Based on DB’s2018-19 US natural gas price forecasts of $2.98/MMBtu and $3.10/MMBtu, respectively,we estimate US ethane prices will average 30 c/gal in 2018 and 31 c/gal in 2019. Thiscompares to 24 c/gal in 2017.


    Propane prices fell 12.3 c/gal last week to 81.8 c/gal due to looser propane balances.

张春晓 摘译自 安迅思新闻

    With propane inventories down 6% last week to 54MM bbls, they are now 21% and 12%below their 3 and 5-yr avgs, respectively. Longer term, we expect propane inventories todecline due to higher exports (+17% in ’17 vs up 20% in ‘16).